AES Semigas


16 April 2021

Smartphone revenues to rebound by 13% in 2021 after 5% drop in 2020

Global smartphone wholesale revenues will rise by 13% year-on-year in 2021, the highest revenue growth in six years, forecasts market research firm Strategy Analytics. Despite the economic uncertainty and dented consumer confidence caused by the coronavirus, the market will be able to bounce back in 2021 on the back of the Apple iPhone 12 super cycle and the migration to 5G globally, it adds.

Graphic: Global smartphone wholesale revenue growth year-on-year.

“Although global smartphone wholesale revenues decreased -5% year-on-year in 2020 as a result of the global coronavirus pandemic, we expect them to rebound strongly +13% in 2021 and continue to rise in the following years,” says associate director Boris Metodiev. “Economic recovery following COVID-19-related lockdowns globally, overdue replacement of aging devices and higher component prices, as well as migration towards 5G, are all going to contribute to the revenue growth in 2021,” he adds.

“We expect global smartphone sales volume will grow +7% year-on-year at 1.4 billion units, and global smartphone wholesale average selling price (ASP) will grow +6% to $294 in 2021, resulting in smartphone wholesale revenue exceeding $400bn,” says senior director Linda Sui. “We expect the ultra-premium segment ($600 wholesale and above) to perform particularly well due to iPhone 12’s super cycle, and to contribute to almost half of the overall wholesale revenues this year,” she adds.

“We expect the four largest countries of China, USA, India and Japan to account for 54% of all smartphone wholesale revenues worldwide in 2021,” notes senior VP David Kerr. “A downside risk remains in terms of volumes and value in India and Brazil, which are suffering through significant surges in COVID-19 currently. However, in general we remain modestly optimistic about both replacement sales and new customers.”

Tags: Smartphone shipments