11 October 2010


Mobile handset shipments to reach 1.43bn in 2011

Global mobile handset shipments will grow by 19.2% from 1.2bn in 2009 to 1.43bn in 2011, according to the Q3/2010 ‘Global Handset Vendor Market Share and Forecast’ database of IE Market Research Corp (IEMR). This includes annual growth of 8–10% over 2010–2011. “Although the global recession led to a significant slowdown in mobile handset shipments in 2009, we expect stronger growth over the next two years especially in key Asian and African markets,” says Nizar Assanie, VP (research) at IEMR.

“Intense competition continues between the largest handset vendors,” adds Assanie. “We forecast that Nokia will maintain its global market share of above 35% over the next two years, with total handset shipments of 518.3 million in 2011 [36.3% market share].” IEMR’s model also predicts that Samsung, the second largest handset supplier globally, will increase its market share from 19.9% currently to 20.5% in 2011, with shipments of 293 million.

Asia Pacific, Middle East and Africa will experience faster growth than other regional handset markets over the next two years. More than 40% of handset shipments are for the Asia Pacific (the largest regional market), and this should rise to 45% in June 2012. Emerging markets in Middle East and Africa will also see their shares of the global market rise over the next eight quarters.

In the Middle East and Africa, shipments are expected to rise to 167.8 million in 2011, with Nokia remaining dominant, shipping 28.4 million handsets (a market share of 63.6%). Shipments for second-biggest vendor Samsung should rise to 8.7 million (a market share of 19.4%).

In the Asia Pacific region, the top six vendors are Nokia (number-1 in both China and India), Samsung, ZTE, LG, Sony Ericsson and Huawei. IEMR forecasts that handset shipments will rise to 617.8 million in 2011, including 222.6 million for Nokia (a market share of 36%). In particular, in South Korea the top three vendors are Samsung, LG and Pantech & Curitel, with Samsung’s shipments expected to rise to about 11.8 million. However, in Japan the top three vendors are Sharp, Fujitsu and Panasonic, with Sharp expected to maintain a market share of about 24%.  

In Eastern Europe, unlike other regional markets, small suppliers have very little market share. Nokia, Samsung and LG, together with Sony Ericsson, continue to take more than 95% market share. IEMR forecasts that handset shipments will rise to 123.2 million in 2011, including 66.4 million for Nokia (a market share of 54%) and 32.9 million for Samsung (a market share of 26.7%).  

In Western Europe, the top six suppliers are Nokia, Samsung, Sony Ericsson, LG, and Apple, and Nokia and Samsung together continue to dominate. IEMR forecast that handset shipments will rise to 223.5 million in 2011, including 73.2 million for Nokia (a market share of 32.8%) and 59.6 million for Samsung (a market share of 26.7%).  

In the South and Central America market, the top six vendors are Nokia, LG, Samsung, Motorola, Sony Ericsson and Alcatel. Handset shipments will rise to 113.3 million in 2011, including 36.7 million for Nokia (32.4% market share). However, the market shares of LG and Samsung will increase over the next two years as they tie for second place in 2011, each shipping about 23 million handsets.

Compared with the overall global market (where Nokia is dominant), the market dynamics in North America (USA and Canada) are different: the top-6 handset suppliers are Samsung, LG, Research In Motion, Motorola, Apple and HTC. In 2011, handset shipments in North America will rise to 182.6 million, including 50.9 million for Samsung (a market share of 28%). Nokia, with its current 6% North American market share, has a long way to go before it can start displacing the market leaders there, comments IEMR.

See related items:

Global handset shipments exceed 321 million in Q2/2010

Year-on-year handset growth slows from 17% to 13% in Q2

Search: Mobile handset shipments


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